More than fortune tellers and circus clowns...

I suppose it is impossible in these polarized times to avoid coverage of this year’s Presidential election; much like manufacturing or hospitality, I always think of our business of radio through the national lens as we are all workers/managers of an interconnected commodity that reaches close to all Americans.

There’s a line that’s been used by every modern president and fictional ones like those in The West Wing: “I Still Believe Our Greatest Days are Ahead.” Always spoken by a leader facing great adversity or challenge and encouraging their people that just beyond the hard work of the moment lies the best of times. Radio, as an industry, is in such a moment. But it’s a moment largely of our own making and provides a crossroads for our choosing the next steps forward.

I’m reminded of another President, Jimmy Carter, who gave a famous address to the nation speaking of “malaise of the people.” He was arguing that what stood between the nation and greatness at that moment was a lack of confidence in American exceptionalism. Radio rank and file stand at just such an impasse today in our field. Worse, as then in the country as now in our business, that malaise, that sense of uncertainty, cynicism and even dread projected to the world at large. While in national affairs, Carter may have correctly assessed the moment, it took Ronald Reagan‘s sunny disposition to convince people to shake it off and move forward, at least in their outlook. Let me try in my own way here to do both.

From the reduction in resources at all companies (less cash investment in the product from promotions to staff to marketing), fewer available jobs, bad press (particularly in the digital media and media message boards), and yes, exacerbated by the huge restructuring of radio’s largest owner iHeartMedia, among radio’s rank and file, leaders and enthusiasts, there is a sense that we are at or close to the endgame of the industry. Among advertisers and observers, there is often a perception of decline, an “old media” succumb to the digital age. Among even the most passionate and talented players in our business, a collective “yikes!” Hell--I’m still in shock a year later that WPLJ is gone, from the time I read about it in Billboard as a 10-year-old wannabe, my whole professional life centered on being a part of it. I get it, but we are the makers of much of our own misery.

I shared thoughts similar to these in a social media post immediately following the events at iHeart and they were taken to task by some as insensitive so, let’s be clear: losing your job stinks. Period. Made worse by the uncertainty it lends to one’s responsibilities in life. I feel it and offer nothing but compassion and an outstretched hand to anyone in need, always and anytime (seriously, guidance/advice/friendship, I’m here for my radio family). Having said that, the recent “dislocation” and indeed all staff reductions in radio, in business, are not personal. In radio’s case, and specifically iHeart’s, they are also not the result of a failing, dying ROI for owners/advertisers. A lot of digital media, pundits online and out in the world at conferences, and in Madison Avenue meetings cry that “radio is dying because of new tech options, it’s over.” And so many of us in this industry we love, as we have so many times over the years, hang our heads and accept our place in show business somewhere between fortune tellers and circus clowns. I don’t know for certain, but iHeart’s business decision (and yes, that’s what it was) was based on the belief that they can operate their very successful stations with a centralized workforce and that they can make a bigger profit by focusing resources on their app, their music festivals and other brandings. Argue the merits, but that was the judgment of that company’s leadership. What it was not was, “well, our cume is down to nothing and our revenue is fading, so if we don’t make cuts we may go out of business altogether.” Nor is that true of any company that operates with less overhead than 20 years ago.

You know why radio had overnight jocks everywhere in 1986? Because they were cheaper and more reliable to employ than an analog automation system. Surely those of us at this long enough to remember the smaller companies and/or mom-and-pop owners of yore were just as cost-efficient and bottom line-focused as today’s mega-media owners, maybe more so.

It’s not personal, it’s not a product of not being able to afford an overnight show. Overnights had small listenership and lousy ROI on revenue-expenses then, same as now. With WideOrbit and NextGen, it became a better ROI for that daypart. Does that stink that there is less on-air talent and fewer graveyard shift gigs for those starting out? Sure it does, but it doesn’t mean that it’s a product of the business dying altogether. What was ALSO true of radio in 1986 and is true today is that great content is engaging. Audio is hot, the spoken word moves people to use an advertiser and it entertains them when they listen to a personality. The opportunity is for talent who can create it and companies will still seek to employ them for it. The demand from the public is there. Maybe there is more hard work than ever before, maybe it just used to come easier, maybe it’s evolving. But the opportunity is out there.

Here are the facts:

• Just this month, Group M predicted 3% revenue growth for radio over the next 5 years. Moody’s saw 0-1% growth.
• Nielsen shows radio reaches 92% of all Americans at least once per week, flat over the last decade and up from 87% in the 1980s.
• Print media (newspapers/magazines) is set to continue a double-digit decline in readership and an 8-10% decline in revenue by 2025 (and they’ve been declining rapidly since Y2K).
• Terrestrial TV both local news and network programming are seeing a 25% dip over the last decade and 6-8% drop in revenue in the same period conservatively.
• According to BIA last year, terrestrial radio revenue in the U.S. was at $14.8 billion, behind only Netflix (which is over-leveraged), ahead of Spotify by nearly $10 billion and on par with Adobe Inc. and Uber in net revenue.

In the past month, we’ve seen the Grammys, the SAGs, Oscars, Golden Globes, all facets of entertainment/show business celebrating itself. Never a discussion of industry disruption, rather pride, pomp and spectacle. Despite their precarious situation, print and local TV retain the same attitude. To return to the Presidential season vestige over us, I quietly found it amazing to myself the importance papers that like the Des Moines Register are given as part of the democratic process, when Des Moines radio reaches easily 40 times the total audience. No slam on that newspaper, but the point is the audience for terrestrial radio is there, the revenue is there, the opportunity to create content is there. Our malaise as an industry ends when we pick up our collective heads, believe in our business again, focus on what we can do to win, and take pride in both the history and the toil of our craft whether we host it, manage it or sell it. We as an industry commit to finding ways to invest in our brands (we’ve always had to be creative), to fight for more of the revenue pie by telling radio’s story, and to being part of the fabric of the communities our brands are licensed to serve.

From The Lone Ranger and The Shadow to Edward Murrow with the Allies, from baseball games to the theater, from Alan Freed to Elvis Duran and Rush Limbaugh to Howard Stern, radio has constantly reinvented itself and dazzled the American public with its sturdy, robust ability to create pictures for the mind with sound. I’m reminded not of a Presidential quote but of fellow broadcaster David Letterman who said, “There’s only one requirement of any of us, and that is to be courageous. Because courage defines all other human behavior. And pretending to be courageous is just as good as the real thing” when seeking to summon strength to carry on.